Some conjectures about ranks of elliptic curves over ℚ #
References:
- [PPVW2016] Jennifer Park, Bjorn Poonen, John Voight, and Melanie Matchett Wood. A heuristic for boundedness of ranks of elliptic curves, https://ems.press/journals/jems/articles/16228
- [BS2013] Manjul Bhargava and Arul Shankar. The average size of the 5-Selmer group of elliptic curves is 6, and the average rank is less than 1, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.7859
- Wikipedia
The rank of an elliptic curve over a number field is always finite by the Mordell–Weil theorem.
Consequently, the rank is always finite, so finrank ℤ E⟮K⟯ = 0 really means that the group of
rational points is torsion, not that it is of infinite rank.
Convert the structure RatEllipticCurve to a Weierstrass curve.
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The rank of an elliptic curve over ℚ.
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The naïve height of an elliptic curve over ℚ.
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The set of elliptic curves over ℚ with naïve height less than or equal to a given height.
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Formula (5.1.1) of [PPVW2016]: The number of elliptic curves over ℚ with naïve height at most
H is asymptotically 2^(4/3)*3^(-3/2)/ζ(10) * H^(5/6).
Conjecture by Goldfeld and Katz–Sarnak: if elliptic curves over ℚ are ordered by their heights, then 50% of the curves have rank 0 and 50% have rank 1. See p. 28 of https://people.maths.bris.ac.uk/~matyd/BSD2011/bsd2011-Bhargava.pdf.
Theorem 3 of [BS2013]: when elliptic curves over ℚ are ordered by height, their average rank is < .885.
From [PPVW2016], Section 3.1: "from the mid-1960s to the present, it seems that most experts conjectured unboundedness."
From [PPVW2016], Section 8.2: "Our heuristic predicts (a) All but finitely many E ∈ ℰ satisfy rk E(ℚ) ≤ 21". In other words, there are only finitely many elliptic curves over ℚ (up to isomorphism) with rank greater than 21. Notice that this contradicts the previous conjecture.
[PPVW2016] 8.2(b): for 1 ≤ r ≤ 20, the number of elliptic curves over ℚ with rank r and
naïve height at most H is asymptotically H ^ ((21 - r) / 24 + o(1)).
Note: ℰ_H in 8.2(b) should be ℰ_{≤H}, see the statement of Theorem 7.3.3.
When r = 1, the exponent is 20 / 24 = 5 / 6, which agrees with the exponent in
card_heightLE_div_pow_five_div_six_tensto and is consistent with
half_rank_zero_and_half_rank_one.
[PPVW2016] 8.2(c): the number of elliptic curves over ℚ with rank ≥ 21 and naïve height
at most H is asymptotically at most H ^ o(1).
The elliptic curve over ℚ of rank at least 29 found by Elkies and Klagsbrun in 2024. It has rank exactly 29 assuming the generalized Riemann hypothesis.
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- One or more equations did not get rendered due to their size.
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The elliptic curve over ℚ of rank at least 28 found by Elkies in 2006. It has rank exactly 28 assuming the generalized Riemann hypothesis.
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- One or more equations did not get rendered due to their size.